ISDS 361B Term Project: Forecasting Sales The Karrie Restaurant is located in Portland Oregon. The restaurant has just completed its third year of operation. During this time, the owner sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high quality during the establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. The efforts made by the owner and her staff have proven successful, and her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest growing restaurants January 263 282 The owner has concluded that, to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales. Owner has the following data on total food and beverage sales for the 3 years of operation. Food and Beverage Sales for the Karrie Restaurant ($1000) Month First Year Second Year Third Year 242 February 238 March 247 April May June July August September October 148 November 152 December 206 235 110 230 Managerial Report 1. Graph the Time Series and analyze the graph. 2. Analyze the data using the Time Series Models and identify the Best Model. Support your answer. 3. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each month, and comment on the high and low seasonal months. Do the seasonal Indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss. 4. Is the Best Model produces in-control forecast errors? Perform the test and discuss the results. 5. Use the Best Model to forecast sales for January of the 4 year. 6. Assume that January sales for the year turned out to be $295,000. What is your forecast error? If this error is large, what can you do to get a more accurate forecast. 7. Include detailed calculations of your analysis and Excel coples in the appendix of your report. 8. Your report should include: • A cover page which clearly shows your name and the project. A short introduction paragraph that gives the background of your study and brief summary of what you have done in the report • A discussion section covering the different analyses you have carried out and comments on the results, A conclusion section that wraps up and give recommendations based on your analyses
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