Unit 2 Paper Assignment: UMass Amherst Political Science 121 World Politics Fall 2021
Instructions Write a 450-500 word paper using the Bargaining Model of War to support your conclusions about whether the parties to one of the following three armed conflicts are ready to accept outside proposals for resolving their conflict or want to continue fighting (background items below): 1. The Armenia-Azerbaijan war over Nagorno-Karabakh 2. The Ethiopian government – Tigray People’s Liberation Front conflict 3. The new round of peace talks in Libya Remember that war continues even if only one wants to continue fighting. When prearing your paper, include all citations as footnotes; format the footnotes according to the APA guide section on how to prepare the list of references, adding the pape numbers at the end. Footnotes do not count in the word limit.
Background Items 1. The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Explained What you need to know about the deadly clashes over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. By Zia Weise, Jan Cienski and David M. Herszenhorn Politico September 28, 2020 7:51 pm [Note: as is common in foreign policy reporting, names of capital cities are sometimes used as shorthand for the government. Hence “Ankara” = Turkish government, “Baku” = Azerbaijan government, “Yerevan” = Armenian government.]
Violence flared up in a long-running conflict on Europe’s eastern edge [in August 2020] as Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed over the embattled region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The ongoing fighting has left more than 100 people dead — the most serious escalation in years.
The two former Soviet states have clashed over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian- controlled enclave internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, for three decades. But the conflict is more than a Cold War-era relic. Both sides enjoy the support of powerful backers and with the South Caucasus occupying a strategic position in the global energy market, the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan could end up reverberating beyond the region.
Here’s what you need to know about the latest escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
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What happened?
Armenia says that on the morning of September 27, Azerbaijan launched air and artillery attacks on Nagorno-Karabakh, while Baku says it was conducting a “counter-offensive in response to military provocation.” As the fighting turned deadly, Armenia declared martial law and general mobilization. Azerbaijan announced a state of war in some regions.
The death toll is disputed. As of October 2, Armenia has reported 158 fatalities among troops; on the second day of fighting, Azerbaijan claimed it had killed 550 Armenians, which Yerevan denied. Armenia, meanwhile, claimed at the time that it had killed 200 Azerbaijanis, but Baku has not reported any military casualties. Both sides have accused each other of killing civilians: Armenia has reported 13 civilian deaths, while Azerbaijan has reported 19, according to Agence- France Presse.
During the so-called Four-Day War in 2016 — to date the worst breach of a 1994 cease-fire agreement — more than 200 people died.
What’s the bigger picture?
The Nagorno-Karabakh clashes have the potential to draw in larger powers — in particular Russia and NATO member Turkey, two countries that already support opposing sides in Syria and Libya.
Turkey has long been a staunch supporter of Azerbaijan: Ankara and Baku share close cultural ties, given their shared Turkic heritage. Meanwhile, Turkey and Armenia have a long history of tensions, exacerbated by Ankara’s refusal to recognize the 1915 Armenian genocide as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The latter prompted Turkey to seal its border with Armenia in 1993, which has remained shut ever since. The two countries do not have diplomatic relations.
Russia plays a more ambiguous role in the region, maintaining close economic ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan and supplying weapons to both. Its relationship with Yerevan is deeper, however — Armenia hosts a Russian military base and is part of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Then there’s the region’s role in the global energy trade: The pipelines connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey are crucial for the European Union’s oil and natural gas supply — and pass close to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting over that region?
Christian-majority Armenia and Muslim-majority Azerbaijan have had frictions for centuries, but religion does not play a major role in the modern-day conflict. A lot of the blame rests with Joseph Stalin. The former Soviet leader placed the majority-Armenian region of Nagorno- Karabakh (known as Artsakh to Armenians) into Azerbaijan after the Caucasus was conquered by the Red Army in the early 1920s. Neither side was pleased, though for decades it didn’t matter much.
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But when the USSR began to collapse in the late 1980s, powerful nationalist forces on both sides turned Nagorno-Karabakh into a powder keg. The enclave’s ethnic Armenians declared independence in 1991. War erupted between Azerbaijan, which insisted on the inviolability of its borders, and the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, who received support from Armenia itself. By 1994, the Armenians had succeeded in driving the Azerbaijani army from the enclave and large surrounding swathes of land. Hundreds of thousands of people had to flee.
These days, the United Nations still recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan’s territory; no country considers the enclave an independent country — not even Armenia, which also hasn’t formally annexed it but supports the region financially and militarily. Since then, the two countries have hunkered down on either side of a line of control marked by landmines and snipers.
Why did things escalate now?
Armenia’s 2018 “velvet revolution,” which toppled its longtime leader Serzh Sargsyan, briefly raised hopes that long-stalled peace negotiations could resume. But Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the opposition politician who rose to power after the mass protests, largely ended up sticking by his predecessor’s rhetoric.
An election organized this spring by the self-declared Armenian government in Karabakh was viewed as a provocation in Azerbaijan and drew international criticism. And in July this year, tensions started surging after a series of clashes killed more than a dozen people, with the catalyst still remaining unclear. The fighting prompted thousands of Azerbaijanis to demonstrate for war with Armenia; at the same time, Turkey ratcheted up its rhetoric in support of Baku.
What’s been the international reaction so far?
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has urged “an immediate cessation of hostilities,” a call echoed by the U.S. State Department and the United Nations.
Turkey sided firmly with Azerbaijan, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan describing Armenia as “the biggest threat to peace” in the region. Russia took a more cautious approach: In a phone call with Armenia’s Pashinyan, President Vladimir Putin said it was important to “halt military actions,” according to the Kremlin’s account of the conversation.
Iran — an ally of Armenia — offered to mediate, saying Tehran was “ready to use all its capacities to help talks to start between the two sides.”
Have there been prior efforts to mediate?
For more than a quarter-century, an international peace initiative, known as the Minsk Process, has tried and failed to bring a resolution to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh after the cease- fire in the region in 1994.
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Chaired by France, Russia and the United States, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Minsk Group has sought to prevent military clashes and to implement a peace settlement.
But years of diplomatic meetings and various missions to the region, as well as to the capitals of Armenia and Azerbaijan, have come to naught.
There were brief flickers of hope after Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met formally for the first time in March 2019, and later in February 2020 for a public debate at the Munich Security Conference. For years, Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders had refused to even appear in the same room. But the coronavirus pandemic interrupted diplomatic efforts earlier this year.
On October 1, the Minsk Group called for a cease-fire, which was rebuffed by Erdoğan.
What’s next?
It’s too early to say how long the fighting will continue or whether it could escalate into a full- blown war. Both the 2016 clashes and the skirmishes in July lasted only a few days.
The picture would change significantly if a major power were to enter the conflict, but even Turkey has so far limited its official involvement to rhetoric. Armenia, however, has accused Ankara of deploying Syrian fighters to Azerbaijan and downing a plane, allegations denied by Turkey and Azerbaijan.
2. Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: Army launches offensive on all fronts – rebels Current Fighting
The Ethiopian army has launched co-ordinated attacks on all fronts against forces from the northern Tigray region. The rebels say the government was using artillery, tanks, jets and drones in an attempt to “reinvade” the region.
A senior rebel source said Tigray forces were holding their ground.
The Ethiopian government has not confirmed any fighting, and a communications blackout makes independent verification impossible.
A senior member of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Getachew Reda, said the government offensive launched last week was now in “full swing”.
Asked if a ground offensive had been launched, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s spokeswoman Billene Seyoum said the government had a responsibility to protect its citizens across the country from acts of terrorism but gave no further details.
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The 11-month conflict has caused a humanitarian crisis, with the United Nations warning that about 400,000 people were living in famine-like conditions in Tigray in July.
Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, and another two million have been forced to flee their homes.
Difficult to justify an offensive Analysis by Kalkidan Yibeltal, BBC News, Addis Ababa
The Ethiopian government has not confirmed reports of a major offensive against the Tigray rebels, but a mobilisation of the country’s forces and allied militia over the past few months left no doubt that a huge operation was in the offing.
With elections out of the way and the rainy season at its end, Prime Minister Abiy seems focussed on a military solution to the long-drawn out conflict.
The war has already taken its toll on the country: thousands have been killed, millions displaced and hundreds of thousands are facing famine.
But both sides have sent mixed signals about their willingness to accept a peaceful resolution.
The Ethiopian army took control of most of Tigray in November 2020, after TPLF forces seized a military base.
In June 2021, the rebels recaptured Tigray in a surprise attack, and then moved into parts of neighbouring regions like Amhara.
Ethiopia has declared the TPLF a terrorist organisation, but the TPLF insists that it is the legitimate government in Tigray.
Tigray – the basics
• Since 1994, Ethiopia has been divided into states, now numbering 10; they are defined on ethnic grounds by the constitution and described as largely autonomous, but with central institutions
• In 2018, following anti-government protests, Abiy Ahmed took over as prime minister and introduced reforms
• Powerful politicians from Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost state, accused Mr Abiy of trying to increase federal power
• Relations worsened and, after the government accused Tigrayan rebels of attacking military bases, the Ethiopian army moved in in November, backed by Eritrean troops
• Mr Abiy declared the conflict over in late November, but fighting has continued
Rebel leader Getachew Reda said the current offensive was taking place in towns in Amhara region, and also involved Amharan regional forces fighting alongside the army.
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The Tigray forces’ statement says “hundreds of thousands of regular and irregular fighters” have been fielded in the current assault.
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3. Libyan rivals ink initial deal on pullout of mercenaries
The U.N. says forces from Libya’s rival sides have reached an initial agreement on the withdrawal of foreign fighters and mercenaries from the North African nation
By Samy Magdy Associated Press October 10, 2021, 4:23 AM
ABOARD GEO BARENTS1 — Libya’s rival sides reached an initial agreement on the withdrawal of foreign fighters and mercenaries from the North African nation, the United Nations said. It is a key step toward unifying the violence-wracked country.
The dispute over mercenaries and foreign fighters has long been an obstacle, particularly ahead of Libya’s landmark general elections due in December.
Libya has been engulfed in chaos since a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. The oil-rich country was for years split between rival governments, one based in the capital of Tripoli and the other in the eastern part of the country. Each side is backed by different foreign powers and militia groups.
The U.N. mission mediating between the rivals said a 10-member joint military commission, with five representatives from each side, signed a “gradual and balanced” withdrawal deal Friday, at the end of three days of talks facilitated by the U.N. in Geneva.
The plan would be “the cornerstone for the gradual, balanced, and sequenced process of withdrawal” of the mercenaries and foreign forces, the mission said.
Jan Kubis, the U.N. special envoy for Libya, welcomed the move as “another breakthrough achievement.”
Libya’s split came into the forefront in 2019, when self-styled military commander Khalifa Hifter, allied with the east-based administration, launched an offensive to take Tripoli from armed militias loosely allied with the U.N.-supported but weak government in the country’s capital.
Hifter was backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and France. But, his 14-month campaign and march on Tripoli ultimately failed in June 2020, after Turkey sent troops to help the U.N.-supported administration, which also had the backing of Qatar and Italy.
1 A Norwegian seismic surveying ship converted for search and rescue operations currently chartered [leased] to Médecins Sans Frontières for rescue efforts in the Mediterranean Sea.
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After the fighting largely stalemated, subsequent U.N.-sponsored peace talks brought about a cease-fire last October and installed an interim government that is expected to lead the country into the December elections. The cease-fire deal also included the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries within three months – something that was never implemented.
Friday’s deal “creates a positive momentum that should be built upon to move forward towards a stable and democratic stage, including through the holding of free, credible and transparent national elections on 24 December, with results accepted by all,” Kubis said.
The sides said they would now go back discuss this with their base and concerned international parties “to support the implementation of this plan and the respect of Libya’s sovereignty.”
The deal also called for the deployment of U.N. observers to monitor the cease-fire before the implementation of the withdrawal plan.
In December, then U.N. acting envoy for Libya Stephanie Williams estimated that there have been at least 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries in Libya over the past few years, including Russians, Syrians, Sudanese, and Chadians.
Though the agreement on mercenaries is seen as a step forward, earlier this month, Libyan lawmakers in the east dealt a setback to the peace process by voting to reschedule the parliamentary elections for January, a month later.
It wasn’t immediately clear how the lawmakers’ move would translate into a postponement of the vote.
- Instructions
- Background Items
- 1. The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Explained
- What happened?
- What’s the bigger picture?
- Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting over that region?
- Why did things escalate now?
- What’s been the international reaction so far?
- Have there been prior efforts to mediate?
- What’s next?
- 2. Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: Army launches offensive on all fronts – rebels
- Current Fighting
- Difficult to justify an offensive
- Tigray – the basics
- 3. Libyan rivals ink initial deal on pullout of mercenaries
- 1. The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Explained
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