Fill in Attached spread sheet.
Analytics Exercise 18-1 (Algo)
Starbucks has a large, global supply chain that must efficiently supply over 17,000 stores. Although the stores might appear to be very similar, they are actually very different. Depending on the location of the store, its size, and the profile of the customers served, Starbucks management configures the store offerings to take maximum advantage of the space available and customer preferences.
Starbucks’ actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise let’s focus on a single item that is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table. (week −1 is the week before week 1 in the table, −2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.).
Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing.
WEEK −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Atlanta 43 34 33 55 35 32 45 38 32 54 28 20 56 46 36 24 55 41
Boston 62 25 50 40 35 32 34 41 40 45 48 54 18 60 42 30 46 52
Chicago 58 20 71 43 45 44 33 20 50 48 72 64 26 25 96 34 44 49
Dallas 42 35 40 64 44 26 42 35 41 50 62 68 63 52 40 38 43 42
LA 43 41 53 45 36 33 42 48 45 46 72 40 33 44 38 48 52 48
Total 248 155 247 247 195 167 196 182 208 243 282 246 196 227 252 174 240 232
a. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks’ and three weeks’ past data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
3-week MA
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5-week MA
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b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter “
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MAPE” answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.)