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TourneSol Canada, Ltd. is a producer of high quality sunflower oil.

Instructions and Submission

  • You must submit your excel document including all of your calculations and analysis as a separate document along with your final report.
  • Final report must be typed in a word processing document (like Microsoft office word), and follows the managerial report format. No redundancy, no word limits.

Late Submission Policy

  • This assignment is subject to the Late Submission penalty policy, namely 5% per day for three days.
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  • Please do not email your submissions to your professor, either before or after the due date; all coursework should be submitted through the online course (Moodle).

Description

Case studies are used to enable you to apply new concepts, use the tools you have mastered, and improve your technical skills you have attained. Through the individual case studies you will discover for yourself the usefulness of quantitative problem solving methods, how to apply them in practice, and their benefit to organizational decision-makers.

In this case study, you will act as a consultant for a company that crushes sunflower seeds to produce high quality refined sunflower oil for sale in the wholesale market. The company is looking for you to make a recommendation on the optimal blend of raw materials required for its next production cycle. You will use a number of decision analysis tools including time series forecasting, linear programming, and cost-profit-volume analysis to make the recommendation and provide analysis on the profitability of the company.

You will be required to submit a written report to management, and to include the spreadsheet models you used to generate price forecasts, optimize the raw material, and a perform the break-even analysis. All analysis should be done using Excel and the various models should be implemented on separate worksheets or in separate workbooks.

Scenario

TourneSol Canada, Ltd. is a producer of high quality sunflower oil. The company buys raw sunflower seeds directly from large agricultural companies and refines the seeds into sunflower oil that it sells in the wholesale market.

The company has a maximum input capacity of 180 short tons of raw sunflower seeds every day (or 65700 short tons per year). Of course the company cannot run at full capacity every day as it is required to shut down or reduce capacity for maintenance periods every year, and it experiences the occasional mechanical problem. The facility is expected to run at 90% capacity over the year (or on average 180 x 90% = 162 short tons per day).

TourneSol is planning to purchase its supply of raw sunflower seeds from three primary growers, Supplier A, Supplier B, and Supplier C. Purchase prices will not set until the orders are actually placed so TourneSol will have to forecast purchase prices for the raw material and sales prices for the refined sunflower oil. The contract is written such that TourneSol is only required to commit to 75% of total capacity up front. Any amounts over that can be purchased only as required for the same price. Historical prices for the last 15 years are in the table below (note that year 15 is the most current year).

Marketing YearSeedAverage Price Index$/short tonOilAverage Price Index$/short ton
147.7352.8
216.4510
276697.2
284719.2
328826.3
286767
324866
371.2928
4601102.3
10476.81217
114851411
125261689
135421702.4
144721797.4
154761839.4

Sunflower oil contains a number of fatty acids, some which are desirable in food products and others that are not. One desirable fatty acid is oleic acid. TourneSol produces high oleic oil for the wholesale market, and requires that the oleic acid content be a minimum of 77%. Sunflower oil also contains trace amounts of iodine. The market requires that that iodine content be a minimum of 0.78% and maximum of 0.88%

The oleic acid and iodine content for the sunflower seeds from the three suppliers is given in the table below.

SupplierOleic AcidIodine
65%0.85%
70%0.73%
80%0.92%

Because the oleic acid and iodine content varies across the three suppliers, so does the price.  It is expected that the cost of supply from the suppliers will be a percentage of the market average price of seeds.

SupplierCost as % of Average Market Price of Seed
78%
80%
88%

The company faces an additional variable production cost of $8.5/short ton and an estimated fixed cost of $1,050,000 over the upcoming production period.

The company is asking you to provide a recommendation on the amount of raw material it should purchase from each supplier to minimize its cost of feedstock.

Management is also looking for an analysis on the profitability of the company in the next production cycle. 

Suggested Approach

This is a fairly complex problem. The following approach is suggested:

  • Use the historical price data set as input to a time series forecast model in order to generate forecasted prices for the average price of sunflower seeds and oil in the next production period. Use standard measures of error to decide between a three-period moving average model or an exponential smoothing model (with α = 0.25). Use the type of model for all three time series forecasts. That is, if you decide to use the moving average model, use a three-period moving average model to fit the relevant data for all three series. Don’t use the moving average for one time series and the exponential smoothing model for another time series.
  • Formulate a linear program to minimize the cost of raw sunflower seeds.  Use the average price of seeds forecasted from the previous step in order to determine supplier prices.
  • Perform a cost-volume-price analysis (review the handout entitled Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis for details) using the average cost per short ton average selling price per short ton.
    • You can generate an effective cost per short ton by dividing the total cost of supply (from the linear program) by the total volume (that you assumed in the linear program).
    • You can generate an effective selling price per short ton from the expected percentage yields and the forecasted average price of sunflower oil.
    • Because of the way that the contract is written, you can assume that the purchase of raw sunflower seeds is a variable cost (you only purchase what you require).

Recall that the cost-volume-price analysis requires you to provide

  • an algebraic statement of the revenue function and the cost function,
  • a detailed break-even chart that includes lines for the revenue and for the total cost, fixed cost, and variable cost (a total of four lines), and
  • a calculation break-even point expressed in number of short tons and percent of capacity.

Management Report

Prepare a written management report that includes, at a minimum, the following sections:

  • Purpose of the Report
  • Description of the Problem
  • Methodology (which would include the model formulation)
  • Findings or Results
  • Recommendations or Conclusions

Be sure to address all relevant points, discuss any assumptions you are making, justify any modeling choices you have made (for example, the choice of time series forecast model), and highlight the following items in your report:

  • a forecast of the next production period’s average price index for raw sunflower seeds and sunflower oil.
  • a recommendation for the optimal purchasing strategy from the various suppliers,
  • a cost-volume-profit analysis using for the recommended purchase strategy and the forecasted sunflower oil sales price,
  • a discussion of the risks and uncertainties that are faced by the company, and
  • an analysis and opinion on the profitability of the company in the next production period (accounting for the expected profit or loss and the inherent risks/uncertainties.

Remember that you are writing the report from the point of view of a consultant with senior management of TourneSol Canada, Ltd. as the intended audience.

Evaluation

Final Case Study will be marked in its entirety out of 100. The following rubric indicates the criteria students are to adhere to, and their relative weights to the assignment overall.

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Content (80%) 
 Extent to which analysis addresses all dimension of case requirements. /30
Extent to which report supports conclusions and demonstrates understanding of principles being analyzed./40
 Extent to which Introduction and Conclusion support overall analysis./10
Communication (20%) 
 Uses clear language and appropriate, topic-specific terminology./10
 Information organized intelligently and holistically./10
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Writers Solution

CDVD enter prises” is a customer driven optical storage m edia producer making about 90.000.000 CDs

1. Introduction

“CDVD enter prises” is a customer driven optical storage m edia producer making about

90.000.000 CDs, Blu -rays and DVDs per year serving about 31.500 different customer s.

Production is divided into five sections: pre -manufacturing, manufacturing, graphics, printing and

packaging. In general, the production can be described as follows:

Pre -manufacturing : Each customer sends an email (or a CD) containing the data to be reproduced

by CDVD enterprises. This data is written to a unique mould a so -called “stamper” which is us ed

to make a disc ingot for further replication. The stamper consists of silicone or glass with a

diameter of about 20 centimeters. The data is written to a silicone – or glassmaster with a laser

beam that “records” the information that is going to be replicated . The information is recorded to

the disc by producing tiny indentations to the polycarbonate known as “pits” and “lands”.

Manufacturing: After the stamper is made the disc replication starts by using molding machines.

Here a syringe injects a he ated liquid polycarbonate (approx. 360 degrees Celsius) producing the

disc which already contains digital information, but cannot be scanned since at this stage the disc

is completely transparent . After a short cooling of the disc , one side of the disc (co ntaining the

information) is covered with a silver, aluminum or gold layer and thereafter is covered with

lacquer which reflects the laser beam in order to read the information from the disc. After a

quality inspection the discs are collected on a spindle.

Graphics: Within the graphics department the covers of the discs are produced according to the

customer’s provided graphic design. Here print stencils are made for the different printing

technologies (serigraphy or offset printing).

Printing: Depending on the quality requirements (high quality  offset) the di scs are printed at a

serigraphy – or an offset machine. The difference between these two techniques is mainly that for

the serigraphy printing machines the mesh has to be cleaned after eac h order and that the colors have to be prepared beforehand. The offset printing machines contain the CMYK (cyan, magenta,

yellow, black) colors and therefore only the stencils need to be changed after each order.

Packaging: Within the packaging department , all orders are sent to machines which are either

fully – or semiautomatic. Here the covers, booklets, inlays etc. are a dded to the discs and are

pack ed according to the customer’s need ( boxes, paper bags, trays, etc.).

Since t he pre -manufacturing and grap hics section are very flexible and do not state a planning

pro blem these two sections are not included in the following description. Figure 1 depicts the

workflow through the shop floor which is organized as a flexible flow shop.

Figure 1: Structure of the production system

Work flows from left to right, each product moves through these sections and i n t otal there are 35

machines on the shop floor. The manufacturing section is divided into two parts: CD and Blu –

Ray, DVD production (thereafter DVD) . These two parts consists of seventeen machines; six can

be assigned to the CD and eleven to the DVD division . The machines are fully substitutable

within the two segments which means all DVD -orders can be made on every DVD machine, but an DVD -order cannot be transferred to the CD part . The printing section is structured into three

parts since three technologies are available to print the media: serigraphy division (SD),

kammann – (KOD) and metronic offset division (MOD) . These three parts consists of ten

machines, six of them are serigraphy, three are kammann offset and one is a metronic offset

machine. The SD machines are partly substitutable and the KOD machines are fully substitutabl e.

The packaging section is structured into four parts, the V1 (CD boxes), V2 (shrinking), V3 (DVD

boxes) and V4 (paper, cardboard and plastic bags) packaging and consists of 8 machines (2 for

each part) whereas the machines in V1, V3 and V4 are partly sub stitutable and V2 machines are

fully substitutable. The production operates 16 hours per day , seven days a week in two shifts,

bottlenecks work stations are in the printing and packaging section due to the varying product

mix. The next section describes th e (production) planning tasks and problems at CDVD

enterprises .

2. Production planning and control tasks and problems at CDVD enterprises

In general, p roduction planning and control at CDVD enterprises follows a hierarchical approach.

Figur e 2 shows the hierarchical structure and the planning tasks at the company .

Figure 2. Planning tasks as described in Fleischmann et al. (2008) In the following we will focus on four different problems (problem sets) that the CDVD

enterprises faces. These problem sets should form the basis for student projects which should

develop models or techniques to improve the situation at CDVD enterprises.

2.1 Mid -term problem sets

1) Customer inquiry management

For customer driven manufacturers – like CDVD enterprises – an additional task is included

within the mid -term planning level, namely customer inqui ry management (also see figure 3 ).

Figure 3. Process of a customer driven company

At first, the customers inquiry at the company by stating the desired quantity of product(s)

(CD, DVD, Blu -ray and the corresponding type of packaging) and their desired delivery date.

Here, t he main decisions are whether to accept or reject the customer order s (order

acceptance/rejection) and whether the desired due date of the customer is feasible or whether it

should be renegotiated (due date assignment or also due date setting) .

1.1) Order acceptance/rejection – Problem set 1:

By now the employee in charge of customer inquiry management at CDVD enterprises does

not reject any order which , as a consequence, leads to overutilization of certain machines and

a low service level. Therefore, the task is to analyze the effect of rejecting orders and to show

the potential improvement of certain performance measures.

1.2) Due date assignment / due date setting – Problem set 2:

One has to differentiate between the external due date which is set by the customer (which

might be negotiable) and the internal due date which needs to be calculated by the company in

order to decide whether to accept the external due date. By now , CDVD enterprises uses forward scheduling to set the internal due d ate. Start ing with

the expected date that the customer places the order (Email with the data for the CD/DVD/Blu

ray production) they add a fixed planned lead time of 6 days (3 days production, printing and

packaging , 2 days transport and 1 day buffer) and thereafter accept or renegotiate the due date

with the customer . A major weakness of this approach is that the capacities of the production

departments are not taken into account and thus the 6 days (fixed) lead time are mostly a bad

estimation of the actual lead ti mes.

2.2 Short -term problem sets

2) Shop floor control: o rder release – Problem set 3 :

After order acceptance and due date setting all (accepted) orders are collected in an order pool

(see figure 3 above) . This order pool is a (digital list ) of orders provided to the production

planner who decides (each day) which orders to release to the shop floor .

At CDVD enterprises orders are automatically released by an infinite backward scheduling

approach. Thus, the release date is calculated by subtracting a fi xed lead time of 3 days from

the given (external) due date of an order. Capacities of the machines are not considered which

leads to time -varying loading and thus to changing utilization levels at the machines and as a

consequence to shifting bottlenecks . Thus, high WIP levels and therefore long lead times are

observed which, as a consequence, le ad to a poor service level . The management seeks for an

improved order release mechanism; they are especially fond of an order release mechanism

based on workload c ontrol.

3) M achine scheduling – Problem set 4:

On the shop floor , supervisors need to decide on the schedule of orders on specific machines

that is – allocating orders to resources at a specific time.

Especially at the printing department, scheduling of orders to the nine different printing

machines is important. By now, supervisors make scheduling decisions using a rule of thumb.

Thus the managers and the supervisors request a decision support tool for detailed scheduling

at least for the six serigraphy machines.

Extra problem set – supply of polycarbonate :

In order to guarantee a smooth production, polycarbonate need s to be on stock when needed,

acquired in time and in good quality. Currently, the responsible employee forecasts the

demand for polycarbonate over a planning horizon of 14 days. Therefore, she looks at the

order book, the stock of the material and uses his torical data (simple average) in order to

anticipate the demand. The company looks for an inventory control policy that determines a

reorder point and quantity (the mean lead time of the supplier is 3 days).

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Producer and consumer surplus

Assume that you were ready to buy a custom tailored dress (or men’s suit) and you are prepared to pay up to $200 for it. Also assume that the tailor is prepared to sell that item of clothing for as little as $100. When you arrive at the tailor shop, the posted price for the item is $150. Discuss how this scenario relates to producer and consumer surplus and how such surpluses, if any, affect buying and manufacturing decisions. Discuss any recent purchases you have made and for which you feel that a similar rationale seemed to be at work.

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Producer surplus is computed by finding the difference between the market price and the marginal cost which is the price the producer is willing to sell the commodity. In this case, tailor is the producer of the dress and is willing to sell the dress at only $100. The tailor must have calculated the cost of production and was certain that he/she was going to get a profit from this price(Lipsey, & Harbury, 2010). The dress retail at $150 at the shop which means extra $50 has been added. The difference of $50 is the producers’ surplus and it is the profit the tailor is going to make. On the other hand consumer surplus is described as a situation whereby the consumer actually pay less that he/she was prepared to pay. In this case, the consumer was prepared to pay $200 for men suit but upon reaching the market the men suit was retailing at $150 which is actually less that the price the consumer was prepared to pay.

            Recently, I went to the supermarket to purchase iron box and I was prepared to pay $250 for the commodity, but upon reaching the supermarket………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

 

……………………………………………………Producer and consumer surplus …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

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